Forecast: Global mobile subscribers and handsets, 2012-2017

10Methodology

Saturated markets and a slumping global economy shrank sales of mobile phones in 2012. But demand for smartphones will help restore growth moving forward, as shipments of smartphones worldwide will surpass those of feature phones in 2013.

Key findings from the forecast include:

  • Global shipments of all handsets will grow 15 percent in 2013, to 1.9 billion, and at an annual rate of 8.7 percent through 2017. In contrast, shipments of smartphones will grow 40 percent in 2013 to over 975 million, and grow at a rate of over 20 percent compounded annually through 2017.
  • Replacement phones are the norm. Just under 15 percent of handset shipments went to new subscribers in 2012, and that figure will decline to under 5 percent by 2017.
  • Smartphone shipments will grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24 percent in China, 26 percent in other Asian countries (including India but excluding Japan), and 37 percent in rest of the world (e.g., Latin America and emerging markets).
  • In the U.S., where smartphones already make up 63 percent of shipments (growing to 76 percent in 2017), growth will be more modest. Smartphone shipments will increase 5 percent in 2013 to 160 million, then continue at a CAGR of 5.5 percent through 2017.
Relevant Analyst
peter_crocker1da68ab915828837e0ac0785afd9b2f4b-avatar2

Peter Crocker

Founder and Principal Smith's Point Analytics

Do you want to speak with Peter Crocker about this topic?

Learn More
You must be logged in to post a comment.

No Comments Subscribers to comment

Explore Related Topics

Learn about our services or Contact us: Email / 800-906-8098