U.S. digital music consumer spending, 2010–2015
From a spending perspective, we assume that the average number of downloads per user will remain essentially flat, with perhaps a slight increase as digital albums continue their recent growth. Over-the-air downloads are a nice new way to address instant gratification, but they are likely to remain an occasional expense. Pricing has gone up over the past few years, with more and more top hits commanding a $1.29 price point, well above the initial 99-cent single that, with credit card fees, made digital music profits for retailers so challenging. While the margins on digital music can be attractive on a percentage basis, there is a good chance that a CD sale worth $13 to $14 at retail will get replaced by the one or two $1.29 singles that are its big hits. We are forecasting solid but modest growth in downloads, with 2010 sales of $2.2 billion increasing at a nearly double-digit rate, compounded annually to $3.4 billion in 2015.