The EIA power generation figures and the future of the US energy economy
Figures for the first half of 2014 for new utility scale power generation in the U.S. came out recently from the Energy Information Administration. They tell a powerful story about how much the energy sourcing landscape in the U.S. has shifted over the past few years.
For starters there was no new coal power generation put on the grid in the first half of 2014 compared to almost a gigawatt in the same period last year. Zero. For those conservatives that have branded the administration as having a “war on coal,” this was proof of how successful Obama has been at rolling back coal power plants.
One set of proposed EPA emissions limits would cap new coal power plants at 1,100 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour. Given that the average coal power plant emits 1,800 pounds per megawatt-hour, this is a death sentence for coal. Other EPA rules would cut carbon dioxide emissions by 30 percent by 2030 relative to 2005 levels. The bottom line is that there’s a lot of regulatory uncertainty for coal and while a Republican presidential win in 2016 would significantly change the market outlook, no energy developer wants to bank on that right now.
But EPA regulations aren’t the only reason though. Cheap natural gas is a killer for coal, not the least reason is how well natural gas works for peaking power plants, which are more important as renewable energy comes online. The intermittency of renewables creates a need for natural gas to pick up the slack when the sun’s not shining and the wind isn’t blowing. While energy storage continues to decline in price, natural gas continues to be the easy and cheap option right now in terms of dealing with peak demand issues.
And for natural gas in general, the addition of over two gigawatts of combined-cycle plants was a 60 percent jump on the same period last year. The U.S. now gets 27 percent of its power from natural gas and while 39 percent comes from coal, that figure will decline over the next decade. Renewables sit at about 6 percent with another 7 percent of hydropower.
One of the more promising figures in the EIA data was the solar story. Utility scale solar is always lumpy because a few large scale solar farms account for such a large proportion of total solar installed. Still 2014 has seen a 70 percent bump in terms of utility scale solar, not to mention the fact that these figures ignore distributed generation like rooftop solar. SolarCity alone is projecting 500 megawatts of rooftop solar this year and almost a gigawatt next year.
When you step back from the data, it becomes clear that we’re living in a natural gas and renewables world. Okay, a natural gas world. But still the renewables figures are promising (even wind power doubled versus a year ago even though it trailed solar installs by a great deal). Of the power added in California, for example, 98 percent came from wind and solar. That’s an astounding figure, propelled forward by renewable energy standards. Other big states like Florida and Texas continued to make big bets on natural gas.
Could anything change this energy future? Sure, as mentioned a republican executive takeover in Washington would be promising for coal. Marketwise, the impending exportation plans for natural gas will be monitored closely by utilities as well as renewable energy developers. If prices move north, as expected, this will impact retail electricity prices and the relative attractiveness of natural gas.
In fact, many solar installers like SolarCity are banking on rising retail electricity rates to increase their competitiveness. And a battery breakthrough that would lower energy storage costs would make renewables even cheaper. But for now, the U.S. energy picture has a lot of fracking in it. And a growing chunk of solar power.