SoftBank CEO and Sprint Chairman Masayoshi Son is stepping up his efforts to convince the powers that be that an acquisition of T-Mobile would create a more competitive U.S. mobile market. He complained during a news conference in February that a lack of competition among U.S. carriers has resulted in “terrible connections” and “the world’s highest mobile fees.” This week, he appeared on Charlie Rose to promise a massive price war should any deal be approved, and followed that up by addressing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington to discuss, among other things, how consolidation could help deliver an improved mobile broadband network, particularly for schools and users in rural areas.

Son has a pretty impressive track record of getting what he wants, often by sheer will, as the Journal documented last week. Which might help explain why T-Mobile CFO Braxton Carter reportedly suggested recently that a merger with Sprint is inevitable.

As always, spectrum is the key

That kind of talk may be surprising considering the fact that both the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Communications Commission have already made their opposition to a deal clear. And it’s easy to see why: As my colleague Kevin Fitchard documented this week, competition in the U.S. market has heated up substantially over the last year thanks largely to T-Mobile, whose disruptive “uncarrier” campaign has forced all the major operators to lower prices to one degree or another and to offer more transparent pricing models. Meanwhile, Sprint has yet to demonstrate that kind of aggressive, innovative thinking since SoftBank took it over last summer, so a merger might well kill T-Mo’s maverick streak.

But the FCC is slated to hold two major spectrum auctions next year that are each expected to draw much stronger interest from carriers than the recent H Block auction did. If neither Sprint nor T-Mobile can pony up the cash to compete, Verizon and AT&T could walk away with enough of the airwaves to ensure the current duopoly for years to come. And while the FCC could give smaller carriers and potential newcomers preferential treatment in those auctions, doing so could give Sprint and T-Mobile a way to legally challenge regulators’ claims that competition is alive and well.

Of course, the basic math of consolidation remains an obstacle. A deal that would leave just three major operators is highly unlikely to be approved in any scenario, particularly when the list of mid-sized regional carriers is almost nonexistent. But Dish Network, which recently added to its spectrum portfolio by winning the H Block, could pave the way to a Sprint/T-Mobile merger. Regulators could force the newly merged telecom to divest some of its spectrum to Dish, or it could give the satellite TV provider preferential treatment in upcoming auctions to ensure it has enough airwaves to finally launch its own nationwide service. The thought of Dish as an independent mobile carrier might be enough to assuage any fears of decreased competition.

It’s still a long shot. But…

Many factors would have to fall into place for regulators to give their blessing, obviously. And while market conditions certainly could change substantially in the coming months, I’m encouraged by the increase in competition we’ve seen over the last year or so. Not only is T-Mobile changing the game, a small army of service providers (mostly MVNOs) that lean much more heavily on Wi-Fi have launched bargain-basement offerings in the last few months, giving consumers a much more affordable – if far less practical – alternative to traditional cellular services.

I wrote in December that a merger of Sprint and T-Mobile is a bad idea that wasn’t likely to happen anyway, and I stand by that. But it’s unclear whether T-Mo can continue to build momentum, and two upcoming spectrum auctions could have a huge impact on how the mobile industry evolves for at least the next several years. Given those uncertainties, it’s easy to see why Masayoshi Son keeps hammering away.