What do Germany’s rising energy prices, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and renewable energy deployment have to do with each other? Consider the following issues.

A New York Times article this past week addressed the question of backlash in Germany against the country’s ambitious energy policy that has pushed electricity prices up, a whopping 37 percent rise since 2005. Germany’s ambitious national goal is to generate the bulk of its energy from renewables by 2050. It has already begun its phaseout of nuclear power.

The issue of Germany’s renewable energy goal has come into greater focus over the last month as the political situation in the Ukraine unraveled. Germany is slowly acknowledging that it can get a lot of power from renewables but that it will need some other source of energy, namely natural gas. Germany gets 11 percent of its power from natural gas and 35 percent of that comes from Russia.

Russia’s position as provider of natural gas to much of Europe is one of the issues preventing a stronger show of sanctions in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. There are fears in Germany of a Russian retaliation against any sanctions. Such a retaliation could disrupt Germany’s energy economy and could make already expensive electricity even costlier.

So what are Germany’s options if it wants energy independence? The country has almost no natural gas of its own though it does have some gas in the form of shale rock, but fracking isn’t exactly in the spirit of Germany’s energy transformation geared at becoming a renewable energy leader. An IHS study did say that if Germany were to frack, it could completely resolve its natural gas dependence on Russia within about 20 years.

There is, of course, another looming option here. The U.S.

For natural gas hawks pushing the administration to approve natural gas export permits, the Ukraine crisis was a gift. Russia provides 30 percent of Europe’s natural gas and the U.K., Italy, and Germany are major recipients. It also provides 60 percent of Ukraine’s natural gas. The U.S. is now the largest producer of natural gas in the world, setting it and Russia on an inevitable collision course. The Crimean crisis may have just been the first skirmish. The quickest way to shift the balance of global power would be for the U.S. to become a major provider of natural gas to Europe and the former Soviet Republics.

And Wall Street’s take on the situation should be telling. Research analyst and investment advisor Jessica Rabe noted:

As the U.S. and Europe try to find ways to undercut Putin’s geopolitical influence, the crisis in Crimea provides the catalyst for the U.S. to go full throttle on natural gas. Both Congress and the oil industry are pressuring the Energy Department to approve more permits for exports of liquefied natural gas to be delivered via tanker. The goal is to wean Europe and Ukraine from dependence on gas from Russia, thereby weakening Putin’s greatest geopolitical asset.

She adds:

The problem is that U.S. liquefied natural gas won’t reach overseas for at least a few years. Still, long-term investors should benefit from exposure to what will soon be the world’s largest natural gas producer, and to companies that operate in this energy ecosystem (oil services, refining, pipelines, exploration and production, etc.).

So what is the potential long term impact for renewables? Domestically natural gas prices should continue to creep north, particularly if export terminals open up and the U.S. becomes the supplier of choice to Europe, weakening Putin’s hold on Europe’s energy supply. The global price for natural gas is often almost double the U.S. domestic price. Those prices should move closer to each other once the U.S. starts exporting at scale.

That’s all good for renewables since they still represent the alternative to being dependent for energy on dictators. Not to mention the reality that as natural gas gets more expensive domestically, renewable energy benefits. In Europe a further pullback in renewables is inevitable given the reality that electricity prices have gotten so expensive, not to mention the multi-year trend of subsidy rollbacks relate to sovereign debt problems.

If Germany’s skyrocketing energy prices and its dependence on Russian natural gas has taught us anything, it’s that while globalization is great, energy interdependence is tricky. I’ve long believed that renewable energy is very much about energy independence and national security. The current situation in Crimea is just one more example.