It’s hard not to walk away from SolarCity’s reporting of its 2013 financials along with Lyndon Rive’s conference call with analysts and not wonder whether the residential rooftop solar market isn’t 3-5 years away from being completely owned by SolarCity. As it stands, the company controls 30 percent of the residential rooftop market. But that figure is creeping north. A year ago that figure was closer to 25 percent and the only other company out there showing signs of a defensible market position is Vivint. SolarCity is projecting around a half billion megawatts in solar installations this year.

Additionally, SolarCity is focused on vertically integrating so that it can become more competitive and squeeze the margins of others in the supply chain. In 2013 it acquired Zep for its solar mounting gear and Parmount for its marketing ability. Both should spur growth while shaving a couple points off of costs down the line. Rive reported that SolarCity is still spending between 2 and 3K per customer in acquisition costs, which is high but unlikely to change for a few years until rooftop solar gets so culturally accepted that prospective customers actually reach out to installers.

So can the local installer survive in this world? Probably for another 3 to 5 years but not forever, particularly since I wouldn’t be shocked to see more acquisitions geared at further lowering costs, which would in turn only spur more rooftop solar. Yes, the expiration of the Investment Tax Credit for solar looms, but right now SolarCity is on a path to lock up the rooftop solar market.