So now solar is driving Wall Street’s surge. Imagine that in 2011.

I doubt many people would have imagined in 2011 that just a couple years after the collapse of Solyndra, a slew of other solar manufacturer bankruptcies and the consolidation of the Chinese solar industry, that we’d see a New York Times article with the title “Solar Power Craze on Wall St. Propels Startup.” But that’s where we stand today with share prices of solar power companies on a 12 month tear and with the post IPO performance of solar installer SolarCity one of the most impressive in recent history.

The article asks the basic question: Is it all hype, particularly given the fact that SolarCity still hasn’t turned a profit and that investment tax credits will dry up in 2016. An enormous amount of growth is now priced into SolarCity’s share price, though if it can continue to push down the cost of installing solar, it’s only a matter of time until there’s a broad cultural understanding that in certain markets where utility rates are high, rooftop solar is cheaper.

What companies like SolarCity have in their favor is that their competition–utilities–have almost no way of responding and becoming more competitive. If anything, utility power prices will just inch north year after year. Utilities will fight SolarCity with regulatory decisions like connection fees but at some energy storage will be widely available.

Is the valuation high? Sure. Will there likely be a pullback among investors the minute SolarCity misses a revenue target? Certainly. But there remain other strong reasons to believe the market opportunity is large and the company that stakes out that market will do well.

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Adam Lesser

Analyst Gigaom Research

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