Europe accounts for about half the $77 billion dollar solar market and so today’s news that EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht is expected to recommend on Wednesday that the EU should levy tariffs of about 30 percent on Chinese made solar panels could seriously shift the balance of power in the solar market there. China has been on a march over the past decade, going from zero to capturing around 70 percent of the global solar market. U.S. and E.U. regulators have both investigated dumping charges, fed by export subsidies, and the U.S. levied tariffs last year.

If tariffs ultimately materialize in Europe, it would be a benefit to U.S. and E.U. manufacturers like SolarWorld and potentially could even help a company like First Solar further penetrate the European market. On the flip side, everyone is worried about starting a trade war with China at a very delicate moment for the E.U. economy, not to mention the overall fact that if cheap Chinese solar panels are less available in Europe, that will slow renewable energy deployment. Though in places like Germany which have strong mandates, it’s less relevant because the country is resigned to paying more money for energy so that the energy can be clean. Which doesn’t make it a surprise that Germany is the country pushing so hard for tariffs on Chinese panels. At the end of the day, Germany is going to pay a lot to go renewable, and it would rather spend that money on domestic made panels.