Tesla is now one of the only EV makers to have actually met its production goals, having ramped to 400 vehicles per week or 20,000 per year. And the company’s share price is on a tear from $26 last August to $38 today.
While many, like John Shinal at Marketwatch, believe that Tesla is in for a rough year ahead, every sign is now pointing in the other direction. I spoke with a sales representative at a Tesla store recently and he told me that the wait time from order to vehicle delivery on a Model S is 6-9 months, which is actually a fair bit longer than the 4-6 months being quoted in a January 16th Automotive News article. He couldn’t even offer me a test drive until March. Additionally, the rep noted that no one knows what the impact on delivery times will be when the European market opens up in March. Tesla has a new facility in the Netherlands and there’s going to be additional demand out of Europe.
I continue to believe Tesla remains supply constrained right now and has the enviable problem of not being able to produce enough cars to meet demand. And the real question for me is how is it going to ramp beyond 20,000 cars a year right now and where will it build its next factory.